A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
As far as first days go, Monday is shaping as a doozy for Britain’s new Prime Minster.
That’s widely expected to be Liz Truss, who’d begin as leader with gas prices poised to fly after Russia cancelled the weekend’s resumption of gas flow down the Nord Stream pipe.
Gazprom blamed an oil leak at a compressor station near where the pipeline plunges into the Baltic Sea, though Germany’s network regulator and turbine supplier Siemens said a leak was no technical reason for cutting flows.
The result is worst-case scenarios for Europe’s growth edging closer to reality.
The pound is within striking distance of its lowest levels since 1985. The euro is testing a fall below 99 cents for the fist time since the early 2000s, with outsized moves possible since a U.S. holiday will thin liquidity.
The latest storage figures show German facilities have already hit October’s 85% capacity target. But that achievement has required cuts to consumption so deep that they are unsustainable without damage to growth.
And the autumn has barely begun, so a lean season awaits.
Focus on Monday, apart from the appointment of Britain’s next leader, is likely to be on the fallout from the gas cut, which is already drawing emergency subsidies and liquidity guarantees in Germany and Baltic states.
Later in the week, the European Central Bank meets with markets pricing about a 75% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
Economics: Final Europe and UK PMIs, euro zone retail sales
Speakers: Bank of England’s Catherine Mann